{ "title": "Vinnarane av Nobelprisen i litteratur og oddsen hjå bookmakarane, 2000 til 2025", "as_of": "2026-10-08", "method": "Siste pris funnen før kvar kunngjering, slik pressa melde han. Brøkodds a/b er rekna om til sjanse b/(a+b), t.d. 10/1 = 9,1 %. Bookmakar: L = Ladbrokes, NO = Nicer Odds (aggregator), B = Betsson. chance_pct er null når vinnaren ikkje var prisa eller ingen pris kunne stadfestast. early_* er prisen om lag ei veke før, berre der eit skarpt seint skifte vart meldt. Vinnaren for eit nytt år er éi ny rad i years, med prisen ved stenging; years_with_market set den fyrste årgangen med marknad.", "reference_2026": { "favourite": "Anne Carson", "chance_pct": 8.9, "fair_odds": "10/1", "as_of": "2026-10-08T07:00+02:00", "method": "Prisane i kvar marknad er rekna om til sjanse og skalerte slik at feltet summerer til 100 % (Kalshi delt på boka si på 115 %). Samla sjanse er eit likt vekta snitt av dei tre marknadene. Eit namn som manglar i ein marknad får den lengste prisen den marknaden lista.", "markets": [ { "name": "Ladbrokes", "date": "2026-09-29", "source": "https://lithub.com/here-are-the-bookies-odds-for-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-literature/", "favourite": "Can Xue", "favourite_price": "10/1" }, { "name": "Betsson", "date": "2026-10-06", "source": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/betsson-group-odds-favourites-for-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-literature-302899576.html", "favourite": "Can Xue", "favourite_price": "5.00" }, { "name": "Kalshi", "date": "2026-10-07", "source": "https://news.kalshi.com/p/nobel-prize-in-literature-odds-anne-carson-2026", "favourite": "Anne Carson", "favourite_price": "22%" } ], "previous_favourite": { "name": "Can Xue", "price": "10/1", "chance_pct": 9.1, "bookmaker": "L", "date": "2026-09-29" }, "top10": [ { "rank": 1, "author": "Anne Carson", "country": "Canada", "chance_pct": 8.9, "fair_odds": "10/1", "ladbrokes": "33/1", "betsson": 7, "kalshi_pct": 22 }, { "rank": 2, "author": "Can Xue", "country": "Kina", "chance_pct": 8.2, "fair_odds": "11/1", "ladbrokes": "10/1", "betsson": 5, "kalshi_pct": 14 }, { "rank": 3, "author": "Gerald Murnane", "country": "Australia", "chance_pct": 6.1, "fair_odds": "15/1", "ladbrokes": "16/1", "betsson": 8, "kalshi_pct": 12 }, { "rank": 4, "author": "Amitav Ghosh", "country": "India", "chance_pct": 5.7, "fair_odds": "16/1", "ladbrokes": "50/1", "betsson": 9, "kalshi_pct": 13 }, { "rank": 5, "author": "Haruki Murakami", "country": "Japan", "chance_pct": 5.3, "fair_odds": "18/1", "ladbrokes": "14/1", "betsson": 19, "kalshi_pct": 13 }, { "rank": 6, "author": "Mircea Cărtărescu", "country": "Romania", "chance_pct": 5, "fair_odds": "19/1", "ladbrokes": "25/1", "betsson": 15, "kalshi_pct": 12 }, { "rank": 7, "author": "Thomas Pynchon", "country": "USA", "chance_pct": 4.8, "fair_odds": "20/1", "ladbrokes": "16/1", "betsson": 13, "kalshi_pct": 10 }, { "rank": 8, "author": "César Aira", "country": "Argentina", "chance_pct": 4.5, "fair_odds": "21/1", "ladbrokes": "25/1", "betsson": 9, "kalshi_pct": 8 }, { "rank": 9, "author": "Salman Rushdie", "country": "Storbritannia / India", "chance_pct": 3.6, "fair_odds": "27/1", "ladbrokes": "25/1", "betsson": 19, "kalshi_pct": 8 }, { "rank": 10, "author": "Cristina Rivera Garza", "country": "Mexico", "chance_pct": 3.1, "fair_odds": "31/1", "ladbrokes": "20/1", "betsson": 11, "kalshi_pct": null } ], "note": "Kalshi-tala for Carson, Can Xue og Murnane er frå 7. oktober, dei andre frå 4. oktober. Ladbrokes hadde ikkje publisert nye prisar sidan 29. september." }, "summary": { "years_with_market": "2006-2025", "clean_favourite_wins": 1, "winners_in_top_three_at_close": 10, "winners_longer_than_2026_favourite_or_unpriced": 8, "median_winner_chance_pct_unpriced_as_zero": 11.1, "median_favourite_chance_pct": 20 }, "years": [ { "year": 2025, "winner": "László Krasznahorkai", "country": "Ungarn", "price": "6/1", "bookmaker": "NO", "chance_pct": 14.3, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "2. (delt 1. hjå Ladbrokes i september)", "favourite": "Gerald Murnane", "favourite_price": "5/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 16.7 }, { "year": 2024, "winner": "Han Kang", "country": "Sør-Korea", "price": "33/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 2.9, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "Midt på lista, rundt 30.; ikkje på lista til Betsson", "favourite": "Can Xue", "favourite_price": "10/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 9.1 }, { "year": 2023, "winner": "Jon Fosse", "country": "Noreg", "price": "5/1", "bookmaker": "NO", "chance_pct": 16.7, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "2.", "favourite": "Can Xue", "favourite_price": "4/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 20 }, { "year": 2022, "winner": "Annie Ernaux", "country": "Frankrike", "price": "5/1", "bookmaker": "NO", "chance_pct": 16.7, "early_price": "12/1", "early_chance_pct": 7.7, "rank": "Delt 3.", "favourite": "Michel Houellebecq", "favourite_price": null, "favourite_chance_pct": null }, { "year": 2021, "winner": "Abdulrazak Gurnah", "country": "Tanzania / Storbritannia", "price": null, "bookmaker": null, "chance_pct": null, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "Ikkje på lista", "favourite": "Annie Ernaux og Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o (delt)", "favourite_price": "8/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 11.1 }, { "year": 2020, "winner": "Louise Glück", "country": "USA", "price": "25/1", "bookmaker": "NO", "chance_pct": 3.8, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "Delt 21. av 32", "favourite": "Maryse Condé", "favourite_price": "4/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 20 }, { "year": 2019, "winner": "Peter Handke", "country": "Austerrike", "price": "20/1", "bookmaker": "NO", "chance_pct": 4.8, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "21. av 26", "favourite": "Anne Carson", "favourite_price": "4/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 20 }, { "year": 2018, "winner": "Olga Tokarczuk", "country": "Polen", "price": "8/1", "bookmaker": "L eller Unibet (kjeldene sprikar)", "chance_pct": 11.1, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "3.", "favourite": "Anne Carson", "favourite_price": "4/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 20, "note": "Kunngjord 10. oktober 2019 saman med 2019-prisen; ingen eigen marknad for 2018." }, { "year": 2017, "winner": "Kazuo Ishiguro", "country": "Storbritannia", "price": null, "bookmaker": null, "chance_pct": null, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "Utanfor topp 10", "favourite": "Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o", "favourite_price": "4/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 20 }, { "year": 2016, "winner": "Bob Dylan", "country": "USA", "price": "50/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 2.0, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "Outsider", "favourite": "Haruki Murakami", "favourite_price": "4/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 20 }, { "year": 2015, "winner": "Svetlana Alexievich", "country": "Belarus", "price": "3/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 25, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "Favoritt", "favourite": "Svetlana Alexievich", "favourite_price": "3/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 25 }, { "year": 2014, "winner": "Patrick Modiano", "country": "Frankrike", "price": "10/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 9.1, "early_price": "50/1", "early_chance_pct": 2.0, "rank": "6.", "favourite": "Haruki Murakami", "favourite_price": "3/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 25 }, { "year": 2013, "winner": "Alice Munro", "country": "Canada", "price": "4/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 20, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "2.", "favourite": "Haruki Murakami", "favourite_price": "5/2", "favourite_chance_pct": 28.6 }, { "year": 2012, "winner": "Mo Yan", "country": "Kina", "price": "8/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 11.1, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "Høgt på lista, bak Murakami og Nádas", "favourite": "Haruki Murakami", "favourite_price": "2/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 33.3 }, { "year": 2011, "winner": "Tomas Tranströmer", "country": "Sverige", "price": "7/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 12.5, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "2.", "favourite": "Adonis", "favourite_price": "4/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 20 }, { "year": 2010, "winner": "Mario Vargas Llosa", "country": "Peru", "price": "25/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 3.8, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "Outsider", "favourite": "Ngũgĩ wa Thiong'o", "favourite_price": "11/4", "favourite_chance_pct": 26.7 }, { "year": 2009, "winner": "Herta Müller", "country": "Tyskland", "price": "3/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 25, "early_price": "50/1", "early_chance_pct": 2.0, "rank": "Delt favoritt", "favourite": "Amos Oz (delt)", "favourite_price": "3/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 25 }, { "year": 2008, "winner": "J.M.G. Le Clézio", "country": "Frankrike", "price": "under 2/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 33.3, "early_price": "14/1", "early_chance_pct": 6.7, "rank": "Outsider, so favoritt", "favourite": "Claudio Magris (før det seine skiftet)", "favourite_price": null, "favourite_chance_pct": null, "note": "Spelet vart stengt etter eit seint skifte; kjeldene sprikar mellom under 2/1 og 1/2. Horace Engdahl i Svenska Akademien mistenkte ein lekkasje." }, { "year": 2007, "winner": "Doris Lessing", "country": "Storbritannia", "price": null, "bookmaker": null, "chance_pct": null, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "Ikkje mellom dei fremste", "favourite": "Philip Roth", "favourite_price": null, "favourite_chance_pct": null }, { "year": 2006, "winner": "Orhan Pamuk", "country": "Tyrkia", "price": "5/1", "bookmaker": "L", "chance_pct": 16.7, "early_price": null, "early_chance_pct": null, "rank": "2.", "favourite": "Adonis", "favourite_price": "4/1", "favourite_chance_pct": 20 }, { "year": 2005, "winner": "Harold Pinter", "country": "Storbritannia", "price": null, "bookmaker": null, "chance_pct": null, "rank": "Ikkje mellom dei fremste", "favourite": "Adonis", "favourite_price": null, "favourite_chance_pct": null, "note": "Ladbrokes tok til å ta imot spel på Nobelprisen rundt 2005; ingen pris funnen." }, { "year": 2004, "winner": "Elfriede Jelinek", "country": "Austerrike", "price": null, "bookmaker": null, "chance_pct": null, "rank": "Ingen marknad funnen", "favourite": "Adonis (tipsa, utan odds)", "favourite_price": null, "favourite_chance_pct": null }, { "year": 2003, "winner": "J.M. Coetzee", "country": "Sør-Afrika", "price": null, "bookmaker": null, "chance_pct": null, "rank": "Ingen marknad funnen", "favourite": "Adonis (tipsa, utan odds)", "favourite_price": null, "favourite_chance_pct": null }, { "year": 2002, "winner": "Imre Kertész", "country": "Ungarn", "price": null, "bookmaker": null, "chance_pct": null, "rank": "Ingen marknad funnen", "favourite": null, "favourite_price": null, "favourite_chance_pct": null }, { "year": 2001, "winner": "V.S. Naipaul", "country": "Storbritannia / Trinidad", "price": null, "bookmaker": null, "chance_pct": null, "rank": "Ingen marknad funnen", "favourite": null, "favourite_price": null, "favourite_chance_pct": null }, { "year": 2000, "winner": "Gao Xingjian", "country": "Kina / Frankrike", "price": null, "bookmaker": null, "chance_pct": null, "rank": "Ingen marknad funnen", "favourite": null, "favourite_price": null, "favourite_chance_pct": null } ] }